今年将您的“经济学家”（不是您的工程师）带到IMT

我爱IMT。这确实是整个金属工业的最宏伟的节目。它可以帮助我在短短几天内击败去年的健身追踪器的全年平均步骤。芝加哥杰特罗·塔尔（Jethro Tull）在芝加哥（Chicago）的“费用账户”（Evense Account）的“费用帐户”（Oppense Account）唱歌时，不喜欢什么？为什么我们不想与一个地方的许多行业朋友，同事，供应商，客户和专家“有效地关联”？为什么我们不想比较技术的燃料，并将其视为未来两年的梦想，计划和购买以升级我们的商店的能力和为客户服务的能力的燃料呢？

那么，为什么我建议通过经济而不是工程镜头来查看这种IMT呢？这是经济……就业，衰退，利率，供应冲击，能源价格和未知未知数。

我知道，您想知道“为什么不从经济衰退开始？你为什么要去工作？我们已经有充分的工作，对吗？”

正确的。这就是重点。我们实际上处于与Covid-19之前的记录水平相同的工作水平。根据弗雷德, All Employees, Total nonfarm (PAYEMS) in February 2020, U.S. employment was 152.54 million. They report 2022 is 151.682 million for May of 2022 — a difference of 858,000.

因此，随着劳动力完全参与，购买新设备可能是不明智的，以为/希望劳动力会来。

What your “economist” will counsel you is to look at your proposed purchases as a way to reduce the need for workforce, by eliminating low-value tasks and automating routines and production. Automatic bar loaders come to mind as just one example of this concept.

经济衰退

Do not get your “economist” started on this. They could go down the path of “technically, it is not a recession yet since a recession is negative GDP for two consecutive quarters.” Look at your order book — not your balance sheet. Orders are slowing. (Dollar volumes are not — we’ll talk about inflation in a minute.) If we are truly in a recession, we already have one quarter of negative growth behind us, then our best strategy is to keep our cash reserves as cash reserves. U.S. retail sales, business-to-business spending and industrial PMI’s reported by various federal reserve banks are all in a slowing growth mode. Could you be a contrarian and invest in growth as the rest of the economy seems to be slowing? Sure. But why would you?

经济衰退 - 无论是迫在眉睫还是目前但未被认可）表明，您可以进行的最佳投资将是在技术和工具上可以降低成本并降低您的订单的时间。尽管有“衰退”，但客户仍在根据最低的成本和最佳交付授予合同。购买新技术可能不会为您提供放缓的市场回报，而降低成本或减少生产时间的投资将通过降低价格或增加产能和减少交货时间来提高您的竞争力。

Interest Rates

资本成本是一个关键的输入任何发票estment decision. Our closely held family businesses are in a stronger position than many public companies because we can also have what I call “patient capital” — investments that span generations. No need to rush out when interest rates are high and the economy is slowing, except for the right investment. But, unless you have a contract in hand and faith in the counterparty, your economist would likely tell you that at this IMTS, you want to be tactical and not strategic.

“Bold play” is the best way to improve your odds when gambling, according to my statistics professors. Precision machinists are not gamblers. Your economist will bless your decision to invest in a major new technology purchase — not on speculation — but on demonstrated return on invested capital. Do the math. Don’t be hypnotized by the gee whiz factor. If you need new tech to keep the customer, to grow the customer, to sign the new customer — by all means acquire it. After you have done your due diligence on the customer, as well as on the capabilities to produce to specs as stated, that will deliver the business plan and Return On Invested Capital (ROIC). Otherwise, it is a gamble.

供应冲击

imt可能是你最好的地方得到你need to protect your shop and your customers from supply shocks. Having a single point of failure in your supply chain is not good business. Neither is having that single point of failure 12 time zones and some indeterminate amount of freight time by ocean vessel away. IMTS is a vibrant venue for you to find alternatives, equivalents and new suppliers for the things that you just cannot seem to find while at your shop and scouring the internet. And share your concerns with the attendees and exhibitors at IMTS — what you are looking for/what you cannot seem to find. Your “economist” probably will not be much help finding a stocking supplier of that particular unobtainable material in Swiss quality. But the person right beside you at IMTS might.

供应冲击Part 2

The reason that lead times are so elevated — despite the apparent economic slowdown — is because no one’s manufacturing plans survive the unscheduled delays and shortages across the supply chains. Lack of complementary parts means that, when they are finally provided, the other parts that are required escalate from “urgent”to “critical.” This may mean that duplicating some of your existing capability (that your workforce is familiar with) will increase your production and volume invoiced going forward. Ask your “economist.”

Energy Prices

Energy prices have an outsized impact on our shops because we need to pay the higher (and still escalating) prices to transform materials into parts. But also because as they grow to become a larger share of the consumer’s budget which leaves less money for consumers to spend. Your economist will tell you that the consumer spend is the backbone of the U.S. economy. Anything at IMTS that can save you energy is probably worth the investment, especially because we think inflation will be increasing costs in the future. Each penny saved on energy today may become a nickel or dime saved in a year or two, given that the “economists” at the Fed believe that we are going to have inflation for a lot longer than their official statements.

未知的未知数

Well, who saw COVID-19 coming? How about the Russian invasion of Ukraine? Who would have predicted that the U.S. government would throw tariffs for national security on steel and aluminum which are needed for national security — while letting in articles made from steel and aluminum by non-allies come in tariff-free? Who would have thought that a change in administrations would maintain those tariffs, further reducing the competitiveness of U.S. manufacturers in the global markets? Who was predicting the shortage of space for full and empty containers at our West Coast ports? The shortage of chassis to handle containers. The shortage of truck drivers?

阅读：工匠Cribsheet＃108：NAICS 332721的2021财年的OSHA引用 - 精密产品制造

接下来是什么？

Who knows. Your economist can tell you to be cautious, and to help you make a rational business decision about what to buy or not at IMTS. But that economist will also tell you that going to IMTS may just be what it takes for you to get ahead of the next unknown. Fellow attendees, vendor presentations and media attention can provide information that does not make the news in the smaller cities. IMTS brings the entire world together in one place to focus on metalworking manufacturing technology and tools. Soak up all it has to teach you. Listen to your economist. Your biggest takeaway may not cost you anything. Listen. Engage. Bring your curiosity. And effectively associate. We will be there. And, if you do not bring your ‘economist,’ I’ll be playing one part-time at ourPMPAkiosk in the Gardner Business Media booth.

阅读更多文章PMPA：

• 有用的情感智能短语
• Craftsman Cribsheet 109：PMPA谈到精确播客 - 工程和材料资源

  About the Author

  

  免费III

  免费III is thePMPADirector of Industry Affairs with over 40 years of experience in the areas of manufacturing, quality, and steelmaking. He helps answer “How?, “With what?” and “Really?” Miles’ blog is atpmpaspeakingofprecision.com; email –mfree@pmpa.org; website –pmpa.org